Bitcoin, which has just exceeded $ 950 billion in capitalization, this morning broke a new record: € 42,500 ($ 51,250).
It is currently displayed around 42,000 euros (50,700 dollars) on the main exchange platforms .
- 3.5% in 24 hours;
+ 10% in one week;
+ 40% in one month;
+ 1193% in two years.
Alexis TK27’s analysis:
“It is perhaps easier to give meaning to the evolution of the price if we compare it with the history represented on a logarithmic scale [1] :
Around the long-term movement of price increases from 2011 to today, there are several episodes of rapid rise, ending in a short “manic” phase and a collapse and then stagnation for up to several years.
These episodes of rapid rise fairly quickly follow the crossing of the previous peak in the price, a peak dating precisely from the previous manic phase. Precisely what happened last December.
We can then interpret the rapid increase since October 2020 as the increase resulting from the arrival of “institutional ” , asset managers and (very) wealthy individuals, when that of 2017 was rather due to (a limited number of) small holders. neophytes and those of 2011 and 2013 were a matter of technophiles and other geeks.
If the same phenomenon is repeated once more (it is obviously an “If”!), Then the current rise, which is still “young”, should be expected to continue long enough, ending in a manic phase. leading the price much higher again, then a further slump – with a low that would however remain significantly higher than the previous peak at $ 20k, and possibly also the current value of $ 50k. This is personally my central scenario.
Two alternative scenarios however (and I’m not saying there are only two!):
1. This time, no real drop by a factor of 3 to 5 after the peak, because asset managers work more in a medium / long term logic than “get rich quickly” like some small carriers, so they would panic less after the end of the rise, which would therefore be followed more by a stagnation than by a sharp fall.
2. Effective global coordination – of which necessarily unanimous or almost – to “kill” bitcoin, through close control ending in a practical ban. I find the scenario unlikely because it would require a coordinated and “hard” policy from the United States, Europe, China, India etc. which seems politically improbable to me. But we can’t quite exclude it. In this case, the price of bitcoin would eventually drop back to close to zero. “
Allow me to add a third “disaster” scenario: The United States, followed or not by other countries, adopt very heavy restrictive measures, close to prohibition, brutally putting an end to the bull market. Bitcoin crosses a long desert crossing at the end of which we end up realizing that Bitcoin is still alive and that the States no longer have any cartridges … it is the beginning of a new and irresistible phase of adoption.
[1] Zoom: click and drag – Pan: Shift. + click-drag – Restore zoom level: double-click
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